Is China a ‘menacing empire’? It’s more of a ‘risky, semi-empire’ says author of new book examining China’s superpower status

By Hugo Novales, FCC In-House Journalist

Han Shih Toh, a native Singaporean who’s been based in Hong Kong for the past few decades, has paved an uncommon career path. He has a PhD in theoretical physics from Oxford University, works as a full-time consultant for Headland Intelligence, and freelances as a  business and economics reporter for various news outlets.

If that’s not enough, he’s now written not just one, but two books.

Following up on the question posed in his previous book Is China An Empire? (2016) in which he described China as a “semi-empire” for its economic and military strength, Toh’s new book Is China a Menacing Empire? (2024) examines China’s relationship with the rest of the world to determine if it’s a benign or malevolent superpower.

In short, Toh finds that China’s actions cause unintended disruptions in other countries, making it a “risky” semi-empire — just like the United States.

At an FCC Club Lunch, Toh sat alongside William Zheng, a Senior Reporter for SCMP and a Correspondent Board Governor of the Club, for a detailed discussion about his latest book.

His reasoning for not describing China as a full-blown empire is due to its choice to not invade other countries that fall behind on repaying Chinese loans, which contrasts with how other superpowers have historically handled debt. He cited the British invasion and occupation of Egypt in 1882 and British-French takeover of the Suez Canal in 1956 as clear traits of “menacing empires” and how other superpowers, primarily the United States, perceived these events negatively.

“China doesn’t invade other countries, but they should make sure their economic influence doesn’t affect other countries so much that you see cartoons of Chinese octopuses in other countries’ newspapers,” Toh said, referencing political cartoons that depicted the UK as an octopus for its previous colonial actions.

Toh’s added description of China as a “risky” semi-empire is linked to the country’s expansive economy that has the potential to create unplanned challenges for its trading partners in property, investments, and more.

“China can unintentionally create problems for other countries… not so menacing, but a risk. China is a risky, semi-empire,” he said.

Toh further explained this concept during the audience Q&A session. The primary risk is the public opinion of China in countries that may perceive its actions as a threat to the local economy or political landscape. While China may be seeking a deal, it may also cause political tension, and even backlash leading to a change in government, in the countries it wishes to do trade with.

“China inadvertently can create social instability in other countries, even though it doesn’t plan to. And China has a dilemma because China’s foreign policy is not to interfere with other countries, but they do business with some corrupt dictators in other countries. That creates a lot of resentment among the local people, and these corrupt dictators lose power,” Toh said.

To watch the full discussion, please visit the FCC’s YouTube channel: